Modeling and Relevance Analysis of Urban Epidemic Transmission and Work Resumption Intensity

Authors

Gan Mi, 1.School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China; ;2.National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China; ;3.National United laboratory of Comprehensive Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;
Yunyi Tian, 1.School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China; ;2.National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China; ;
Wenchang Zhang, 1.School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China; ;2.National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China; ;
Xihan Zhao, 1.School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China; ;2.National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China; ;

Abstract

Abstract: On the basis of multi-source big data, the model for analyzing the population migration changes and manpower gaps caused by the COVID-19 epidemic in 34 typical cities across the country is constructed , and the work resumption intensity of other cities is predicited by using the migration base constructed. The SEIR model is used to estimate the basic reproduction number in each city since the simulate results show that it can emulate the transmission trend of this epidemic accurately, and the retrospective matrix analysis of the work resumption intensity is combined with the manpower gap to summarize the anti-epidemic experience of China. In the stage of relevance analysis, regression analysis is performed on the city clusters under K-means unsupervised clustering. The results show that for most cities, the work resumption intensity significantly correlated with the manpower gap, basic reproduction number, and GDP per capita.

Recommended Citation

Mi, Gan; Tian, Yunyi; Zhang, Wenchang; and Zhao, Xihan (2020) "Modeling and Relevance Analysis of Urban Epidemic Transmission and Work Resumption Intensity," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 32: Iss. 11, Article 22.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0305
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol32/iss11/22

First Page

2258

Revised Date

2020-07-14

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0305

Last Page

2271

CLC

TP391.9

Recommended Citation

Gan Mi, Tian Yunyi, Zhang Wenchang, Zhao Xihan. Modeling and Relevance Analysis of Urban Epidemic Transmission and Work Resumption Intensity[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(11): 2258-2271.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0305