Modeling and Simulation for Prevention and Control of Drug Abuse and Drug-Related Crime Based on System Dynamics

Authors

Liu Feng, 1. Department of Information Management, National Police University for Criminal Justice, Baoding 071000, China; ;2. Research Center of Drug Abuse Correctional Rehabilitation, National Police University for Criminal Justice, Baoding 071000, China;

Abstract

Abstract: In the existing drug abuse dynamics models, the drug users are assumed to be permanent immune to drugs after rehabilitation and the possibility of the recovery drug users being susceptible again is neglected. To solve the problem, through the system dynamics (SD) method, the evolution process of the drug-related crowds is analyzed, and a relevant model based on the transient immunity is constructed. The trends of the drug abuse and drug-related crime are predicted by the simulation experiments, and the sensitivity analysis indicates that the rate of contact and exposure to drugs is the most sensitive factor of the prevention and control effect. The research results show that, the situation is very severe and the systematic prevention and control strategies should be adopted. Prevention and control in advance is the most important, and the necessary correct treatments and punishment measures is the supplemented.

Recommended Citation

Feng, Liu (2020) "Modeling and Simulation for Prevention and Control of Drug Abuse and Drug-Related Crime Based on System Dynamics," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 32: Iss. 5, Article 13.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.18-0623
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol32/iss5/13

First Page

866

Revised Date

2019-05-04

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.18-0623

Last Page

873

CLC

TP391.9

Recommended Citation

Liu Feng. Modeling and Simulation for Prevention and Control of Drug Abuse and Drug-Related Crime Based on System Dynamics[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(5): 866-873.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.18-0623