Development Paths of New Energy Vehicles Incorporating CO₂ Emissions Trading Scheme

Authors

Wenxiang Li, 1. Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China; ;
Li Ye, 2. College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 2010804, China;
Jieshuang Dong, 1. Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China; ;
Yiming Li, 1. Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China; ;

Abstract

Abstract: New energy vehicles in China have entered the “post-subsidy era”, and it is urgent to explore and establish a long-term mechanism for market-oriented development. The CO₂ emission trading scheme for road transport (ETS-RT) is introduced to replace financial subsidies, forming a market-oriented incentive and punishment mechanism. Therefore, a market mechanism is established where internal combustion engine vehicles feed new energy vehicles. A causal loop diagram of system dynamics was used to analyze the key policy parameters of the ETS-RT that affect the development of new energy vehicles. Then a multi-agents-based model of ETS-RT is established to simulate the development paths of new energy vehicles incorporating ETS-RT. The results show that: the market share of new energy vehicles in 2030 and 2050 may reach 50%-85% and 91%-98% respectively under the development paths. It reflects that the introduction of ETS-RT can effectively promote the leaping development of China's new energy vehicles in the “post-subsidy era”.

Recommended Citation

Li, Wenxiang; Ye, Li; Dong, Jieshuang; and Li, Yiming (2021) "Development Paths of New Energy Vehicles Incorporating CO₂ Emissions Trading Scheme," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 33: Iss. 6, Article 25.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0006
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol33/iss6/25

First Page

1451

Revised Date

2021-03-15

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0006

Last Page

1465

CLC

TP391.9;U469.7

Recommended Citation

Li Wenxiang, Li Ye, Dong Jieshuang, Li Yiming. Development Paths of New Energy Vehicles Incorporating CO₂ Emissions Trading Scheme[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(6): 1451-1465.

Corresponding Author

Li Ye,

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0006