Journal of System Simulation
Abstract
Abstract: In order to identify the spreading rules of rumors in vicious news reversal events and make more targeted guiding decisions, a short-term prediction model is proposed to simulate the spread of virus information. This paper improves the traditional susceptible infected removed (SIR) model and solves the problem that the conversion rate is fixed and single due to the limitation of Markov chain when it is combined with systems dynamics (SD) model. The data is validated with the example of "asthmatic girls" . The results show that the model not only effectively simulates the crisis of public opinion communication in a single reversal event, but also analyzes the influence of control factors such as the satisfaction of previous events, the transparency of official information and the government response time on the trend of the event, and reproduces the transmission characteristics that are not easily revealed in the traditional model.
Recommended Citation
Tang, Jianrong and Bao, Jiatong
(2022)
"Research on Network Public Opinion Transmission Mechanism of Inversion Event Based on Integrating Improved SIR Model,"
Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 34:
Iss.
11, Article 10.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0607
Available at:
https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol34/iss11/10
First Page
2406
Revised Date
2021-10-08
DOI Link
https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0607
Last Page
2415
CLC
TP391.9
Recommended Citation
Jianrong Tang, Jiatong Bao. Research on Network Public Opinion Transmission Mechanism of Inversion Event Based on Integrating Improved SIR Model[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2022, 34(11): 2406-2415.
DOI
10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0607
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