Research on Campus Epidemic Evolution Based on Multi-scale Modeling and Simulation in Microscopic & Microscopic View

Authors

Mingwei Hu, College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China; State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Geotechnics and Tunnelling, Shenzhen 518060, China; Key Laboratory for Resilient Infrastructures of Coastal Cities of Ministry of Education, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China; Underground Polis Academy, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, ChinaFollow
Wenjie Yang, College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China

Abstract

Abstract: High density of population leads to high possibility of cross-infection. It is necessary to focus on campus epidemic prevention and control. Basing on existing studies in macroscopic or microscopic view, this paper proposed a multi-scale means to analyze a short-term evolution of Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on campus and estimated the efficiency of prevention strategies. Macroscopic model was based on the susceptible-exposed-infections-recovered(SEIR) model, which exported the time curve of the number of asymptomatic patients and symptomatic patients. Microscopic model combined discrete event simulation modeling and agent-based modeling to simulate the behavior of campus students and the state evolution caused by infectious disease in real-world, and simulated propagation process of COVID-19 on campus, which outputted the population in infection. Through experimental verification of case study, proving the efficiency of peak stagger to school and taking routine nuclear acid testing then isolating patients. Distinguish key parameters by taking sensitivity analysis. The simulation results can provide a reference for the school management to optimize epidemic prevention measures.

Recommended Citation

Hu, Mingwei and Yang, Wenjie (2024) "Research on Campus Epidemic Evolution Based on Multi-scale Modeling and Simulation in Microscopic & Microscopic View," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 36: Iss. 1, Article 13.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.22-0750
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol36/iss1/13

First Page

170

Last Page

182

CLC

TP391.9

Recommended Citation

Hu Mingwei, Yang Wenjie. Research on Campus Epidemic Evolution Based on Multi-scale Modeling and Simulation in Microscopic & Microscopic View[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(1): 170-182.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.22-0750