Emergency Risk Dispatch for Integrated Electricity-heat Systems Under Typhoon Disasters

Authors

• Tongchui Liu, College of Electrical Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
• Lian Tan, College of Electrical Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
• Dongxuan Bao, College of Electrical Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
• Lanting Zeng, College of Electrical Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
• Pengfei Hou, College of Electrical Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
• Ronghua Ling, CHN Energy Henan Electric Power Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450040, China

Abstract

Abstract: The spatiotemporal randomness of typhoon movement paths leads to uncertain operational risks for integrated electricity-heat systems (IEHS), making it difficult to balance system risk controllability and dispatch economy. To tackle this problem, an emergency risk dispatch (ERD) method for IEHS under typhoon disasters is proposed. An ERD model for IEHS under typhoon disasters is established within the model predictive control framework. Based on the uncertainty of typhoon wind speed prediction, a moment-based ambiguity set for uncertain equipment component failures is constructed, and a distributionally robust chance-constrained ERD model is formulated. An approximation method based on worst-case conditional value-at-risk (WC-CVaR) theory is adopted to equivalently reformulate and solve the proposed model. A system risk quantification index model is developed from the perspectives of the probability and severity of risk occurrence. Simulation results demonstrate that, when the risk coefficient is 0.15, the controllable risk and economic dispatch of the integrated energy system under typhoon disasters can be balanced, verifying the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method and dispatch strategy.

Recommended Citation

Liu, Tongchui; Tan, Lian; Bao, Dongxuan; Zeng, Lanting; Hou, Pengfei; and Ling, Ronghua (2026) "Emergency Risk Dispatch for Integrated Electricity-heat Systems Under Typhoon Disasters," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 38: Iss. 8, Article 1.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.26-0087
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol38/iss8/1

First Page

2119

Last Page

2131

CLC

TP391

Recommended Citation

Liu Tongchui, Tan Lian, Bao Dongxuan, et al. Emergency Risk Dispatch for Integrated Electricity-heat Systems Under Typhoon Disasters[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2026, 38(8): 2119-2131.

Corresponding Author

Hou Pengfei

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.26-0087