Scenario Computing for Analysis of Deep Uncertainty Systems

Authors

Liu Yi, 1. Department of Engineering Physics, Institute of Public Safety, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; ;
Gangqiao Wang, 1. Department of Engineering Physics, Institute of Public Safety, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; ;
Zhipeng Wu, 2. Department of Mechanics and Engineering Science, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
Zhenqiang Fan, 2. Department of Mechanics and Engineering Science, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
Yongqiang Chen, 2. Department of Mechanics and Engineering Science, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;

Abstract

Abstract: A method of scenario computing is developed for modeling systems with deep uncertainty. The method consists three complementary parts: hybrid modelling, diverse computing, and interactive validation. Hybrid modelling is to dynamically develop models with merging historical knowledges and observed information. Diversity computation is to simulate multiple plausible scenarios about system future. Interactive validation helps scenario computing process being on the right way instead of deviating. Two cases are provided in this paper applying scenario computing, one is earthquake and the other is driving and transportation. The results show good performance of scenario computing method in modeling uncertainty systems.

Recommended Citation

Yi, Liu; Wang, Gangqiao; Wu, Zhipeng; Fan, Zhenqiang; and Chen, Yongqiang (2019) "Scenario Computing for Analysis of Deep Uncertainty Systems," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 30: Iss. 10, Article 2.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201810002
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol30/iss10/2

First Page

3608

Revised Date

2018-09-13

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201810002

Last Page

3615

CLC

TP391.9

Recommended Citation

Liu Yi, Wang Gangqiao, Wu Zhipeng, Fan Zhenqiang, Chen Yongqiang. Scenario Computing for Analysis of Deep Uncertainty Systems[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(10): 3608-3615.

Corresponding Author

Yongqiang Chen,

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201810002