Dynamic Demand Forecast of Emergency Materials for Flood Disasters Based on Improved GM (1,1) Model

Authors

Zhongjun Hu, 1. School of Management, Shenyang University of Technology, Shenyang 110870, China; ;
Yanqiu Liu, 1. School of Management, Shenyang University of Technology, Shenyang 110870, China; ;
Li Jia, 2. School of Information Science and Engineering, Shenyang University of Technology, Shenyang 110870, China;

Abstract

Abstract: The sudden and uncertainties of the flood disaster make it difficult to collect large sample data for forecasting the demand of emergency materials quickly and accurately. Based on this, this paper proposes an improved GM (1,1) dynamic forecasting model based on the gray system theory; constructs the dynamic demand model of emergency materials in combination with the inventory management method; and takes the real flood disaster in March 2016 as a case study. The validity of the model proposed in this paper is verified. The results show that the improved GM (1,1) model is feasible and practicable, and has higher prediction accuracy than the traditional GM (1,1) model.

Recommended Citation

Hu, Zhongjun; Liu, Yanqiu; and Jia, Li (2019) "Dynamic Demand Forecast of Emergency Materials for Flood Disasters Based on Improved GM (1,1) Model," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 31: Iss. 4, Article 13.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-0112
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol31/iss4/13

First Page

702

Revised Date

2017-06-14

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-0112

Last Page

709

CLC

F252

Recommended Citation

Hu Zhongjun, Liu Yanqiu, Li Jia. Dynamic Demand Forecast of Emergency Materials for Flood Disasters Based on Improved GM (1,1) Model[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2019, 31(4): 702-709.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-0112