DBN Method for Risk Assessment of Dairy Products Cold Chain Logistics

Authors

Weijiong Chen, 1. Logistics Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China; ;2. Logistics and Supply Chain Risk Control Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China; ;3. College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China;
Fan Wen, 1. Logistics Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China; ;2. Logistics and Supply Chain Risk Control Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China; ;
Xiaolin Zhu, 1. Logistics Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China; ;2. Logistics and Supply Chain Risk Control Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China; ;
Qimiao Xie, 2. Logistics and Supply Chain Risk Control Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China; ;3. College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China;
Xiaobei Yin, 2. Logistics and Supply Chain Risk Control Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China; ;3. College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China;

Abstract

Abstract: Dairy cold chain logistics is a one-way dynamic process. According to the Bayesian theory, this paper considered the transitivity between risks and used the GeNIe software to establish the DBN risk assessment model. The cold chain logistics risk probability of dairy products was evaluated and the sensitivity analysis was carried out. The results revealed that the probability of transportation risk is the highest, and the sensitivity of processing risk is the highest. The processing and the transportation are the key links of the dairy product cold chain logistics. Comparing the results of DBN and the results of static Bayesian network by Marcus score, it is found that the results of DBN are efficient precision. This model provides a new evaluation paradigm for risk assessment of cold chain industry.

Recommended Citation

Chen, Weijiong; Wen, Fan; Zhu, Xiaolin; Xie, Qimiao; and Yin, Xiaobei (2019) "DBN Method for Risk Assessment of Dairy Products Cold Chain Logistics," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 31: Iss. 5, Article 14.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-0286
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol31/iss5/14

First Page

936

Revised Date

2017-08-16

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-0286

Last Page

945

CLC

TP391.9

Recommended Citation

Chen Weijiong, Fan Wen, Zhu Xiaolin, Xie Qimiao, Yin Xiaobei. DBN Method for Risk Assessment of Dairy Products Cold Chain Logistics[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2019, 31(5): 936-945.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-0286