Prediction of Epidemic Transmission and Evaluation of Prevention and Control Measures Based on Artificial Society

Authors

Bin Chen, 1. College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China; ;
Yang Mei, 1. College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China; ;
Chuan Ai, 1. College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China; ;
Ma Liang, 1. College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China; ;
Zhengqiu Zhu, 1. College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China; ;
Hailiang Chen, 1. College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China; ;
Mengna Zhu, 1. College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China; ;
Xu Wei, 2. School of Information,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;

Abstract

Abstract: The COVID-19 has been controlled under the strict measures,but how to normalize it deserves in-depth study.The COVID-19 transmission model and the human contact network are established separately based on SEIR model and the artificial social scenario.With the support of the multi-agent computational experiment method,a large sample calculation experiment was performed on the Tianhe supercomputer to simulate the epidemic transmission in typical areas such as communities,schools,and workplaces in artificial cities,and to predict and evaluate the risk of epidemic spread after resumption of work and school.The results show that epidemic prevention and control must be prepared for a protracted battle,the emergency measures should be activated before the outbreak.

Recommended Citation

Chen, Bin; Mei, Yang; Ai, Chuan; Liang, Ma; Zhu, Zhengqiu; Chen, Hailiang; Zhu, Mengna; and Wei, Xu (2020) "Prediction of Epidemic Transmission and Evaluation of Prevention and Control Measures Based on Artificial Society," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 32: Iss. 12, Article 23.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-FZ0460
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol32/iss12/23

First Page

2507

Revised Date

2020-06-15

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-FZ0460

Last Page

2514

CLC

TP391.9

Recommended Citation

Chen Bin, Yang Mei, Ai Chuan, Ma Liang, Zhu Zhengqiu, Chen Hailiang, Zhu Mengna, Xu Wei. Prediction of Epidemic Transmission and Evaluation of Prevention and Control Measures Based on Artificial Society[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(12): 2507-2514.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-FZ0460