Demand Forecasting of Wartime Spares Based on Evidence Theory

Authors

Yunjing Zhang, PLA Information and Technology University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;
Xinxin Wang, PLA Information and Technology University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;
Wang Yang, PLA Information and Technology University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;
Guangming Tang, PLA Information and Technology University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;

Abstract

Abstract: A new method based on evidence theory is proposed to solve the lack of data for the demand prediction of spares in wartime. Utilizing Markov chain model to research the rule of spares demand of peacetime from the historical data. A Markov chain transfer probability adjustment strategy, based on the change of combat intensity, is designed, which can be used to simulation the rule of spares demand in wartime. Under the experience of experts and the combination of the Fuzzy theory and evidence theory, the spares demand is wartime is forecasted. The simulation example shows that the method can effectively predict the spares demand of wartime.

Recommended Citation

Zhang, Yunjing; Wang, Xinxin; Yang, Wang; and Tang, Guangming (2020) "Demand Forecasting of Wartime Spares Based on Evidence Theory," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 32: Iss. 2, Article 19.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-9177
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol32/iss2/19

First Page

314

Revised Date

2018-04-01

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-9177

Last Page

322

CLC

TP182

Recommended Citation

Zhang Yunjing, Wang Xinxin, Wang Yang, Tang Guangming. Demand Forecasting of Wartime Spares Based on Evidence Theory[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(2): 314-322.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-9177