Virus Propagation and System Simulation Based on Cellular Automata Model

Authors

Lijuan Zhang, 1. Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China; ;2. Key Laboratory of Building Collapse Mechanism and Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China; ;
Fuchang Wang, 1. Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China; ;2. Key Laboratory of Building Collapse Mechanism and Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China; ;
Zhengang Li, 3. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Sociology, Beijing 100732, China;

Abstract

Abstract: A susceptible-latent-infected-cured-immune virus spreading model is established according to the characteristics of epidemic transmission and the actual urban spatial map model. Individuals in the environment are regarded as agents, and the spreading mechanism is established according to the principle of cellular. The effects of different strategies and different characteristics of virus spreading on epidemic have been studied. The role and effect of important factors on epidemic prevention and control method are discussed, and the model is validated taking Shijiazhuang epidemic as an example . The results show that the number of initial latent, the infectivity of disease, vaccination proportion are very important in the spatial and temporal distribution of epidemic transmission. Results show that 10% vaccination rate of susceptible population can build an epidemic prevention barrier and effectively control the spread of the epidemic when the prevention and control measures are relatively strict. The model can accurately describe the change rule of epidemic data over time, and it can clearly describe the spatial distribution characteristics. It is helpful to grasp the temporal and spatial characteristics of virus transmission, providing the basis for more effective and accurate policy implementation.

Recommended Citation

Zhang, Lijuan; Wang, Fuchang; and Li, Zhengang (2021) "Virus Propagation and System Simulation Based on Cellular Automata Model," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 33: Iss. 10, Article 18.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0131
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol33/iss10/18

First Page

2449

Revised Date

2021-05-30

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0131

Last Page

2459

CLC

TP391.9

Recommended Citation

Zhang Lijuan, Wang Fuchang, Li Zhengang. Virus Propagation and System Simulation Based on Cellular Automata Model[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(10): 2449-2459.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0131