Combination Forecasting Model of Photovoltaic Power Based on Empirical Wavelet Transform

Authors

Chen Tao, Engineering Research Center for Internet of Things Technology Application Ministry of Education, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China;
Wang Yan, Engineering Research Center for Internet of Things Technology Application Ministry of Education, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China;
Zhicheng Ji, Engineering Research Center for Internet of Things Technology Application Ministry of Education, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China;

Abstract

Abstract: In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term photovoltaic power, a variable weight combined prediction model based on Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT) and PSO-optimized random forest(RF) is proposed. Gray correlation analysis is used to select similar days, EWT is used to decompose the power time series into sub-modes of different frequencies, and three modes of high, medium, and low frequency are reconstructed according to the frequency, PSO-RF and PSO-BP and PSO-LSSVM prediction models are established to dynamically calculate their respective weights for reconstruction, and error correction is performed to output the prediction results. By predicting the output power of Australian photovoltaic power stations, the results verify the effectiveness of the EWT-PSO-RF combined model, which effectively improves the accuracy of ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction.

Recommended Citation

Tao, Chen; Yan, Wang; and Ji, Zhicheng (2021) "Combination Forecasting Model of Photovoltaic Power Based on Empirical Wavelet Transform," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 33: Iss. 11, Article 10.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-FZ0709
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol33/iss11/10

First Page

2627

Revised Date

2021-07-30

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-FZ0709

Last Page

2635

CLC

TP391.9

Recommended Citation

Chen Tao, Wang Yan, Ji Zhicheng. Combination Forecasting Model of Photovoltaic Power Based on Empirical Wavelet Transform[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(11): 2627-2635.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-FZ0709