Simulation on the Development of Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation under the Declining Trend of Feed-in-Tariff

Authors

Libo Zhang, 1. College of Economics & Management, Energy Soft Science Research Center, Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China;; ;
Lulu Ge, 1. College of Economics & Management, Energy Soft Science Research Center, Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China;; ;
Changqi Chen, 1. College of Economics & Management, Energy Soft Science Research Center, Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China;; ;
Mingduan Tang, 2. The Second Research Academy of CASIC, Beijing 100854, China;

Abstract

Abstract: Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Generation (R-DPVG) has become the important developing force of PV generation in China. As the declining of Feed-in-Tariff (FIT), system dynamics method is used to construct a causal loop model for R-DPVG’s development, and relevant factors and their feedback mechanism are qualitatively analyzed. Then a stock-flow model is build, and the ROI, installed capacity, and policy subsidy costs of R-DPVG are simulated under some combined scenarios based on declining FIT. The simulation proves R-DPVG’s FIT will be reduced to 0.05 ~ 0.1 yuan/(kW?h) in the next three years till cancelled. FIT cutting amplitude, capacity and targets of installation and cost of the FIT subsidy should be comprehensively considered in policy-making to promote R-DPVG’s sustainable development in China.

Recommended Citation

Zhang, Libo; Ge, Lulu; Chen, Changqi; and Tang, Mingduan (2021) "Simulation on the Development of Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation under the Declining Trend of Feed-in-Tariff," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 33: Iss. 6, Article 19.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0066
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol33/iss6/19

First Page

1397

Revised Date

2020-03-29

DOI Link

https://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0066

Last Page

1405

CLC

TP391.9;F251.2

Recommended Citation

Zhang Libo, Ge Lulu, Chen Changqi, Tang Mingduan. Simulation on the Development of Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation under the Declining Trend of Feed-in-Tariff[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(6): 1397-1405.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0066