A Threat Assessment Method in Uncertain Dynamic Environments

Authors

Mei Yang, College of Intelligence Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
Bingkun Wang, College of Intelligence Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China; Northwest Institute of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering, Xianyang 712099, China
Zhongjie Zhang, College of Intelligence Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
Yan Zeng, College of Intelligence Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
Jian Huang, College of Intelligence Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China

Abstract

Abstract: A threat assessment method based on priori information and dynamic observation results is studied for the existence of dynamic uncertainty in complex war systems. The data mining is applied to obtain prior knowledge on the battlefield situation and construct an equipment-related confidence matrix. The sensor model is constructed to dynamically update the number of blue-side entities under the current situation by using the Bayesian method and considering both intelligence and observation results. The threat evaluation indicators and their weights are determined, and the TOPSIS method is used to finish the threat assessment. This method can well describe the complex and changing dynamic battlefield environment and make full use of priori information and dynamic observation results for threat assessment of the detection area or the undetectable location nearby. The feasibility of this method is verified through case simulation analysis.

Recommended Citation

Yang, Mei; Wang, Bingkun; Zhang, Zhongjie; Zeng, Yan; and Huang, Jian (2024) "A Threat Assessment Method in Uncertain Dynamic Environments," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 36: Iss. 12, Article 1.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.24-FZ0735
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol36/iss12/1

First Page

2741

Last Page

2754

CLC

TP391.9

Recommended Citation

Yang Mei, Wang Bingkun, Zhang Zhongjie, et al. A Threat Assessment Method in Uncertain Dynamic Environments[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(12): 2741-2754.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.24-FZ0735