Interaction Between Virus Transmission Variation and Population Crossover Activity and Diffusion Model

Authors

Lei Yu, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaFollow
Xichou Zhu, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Huaming Liao, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Jiafeng Guo, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Xueqi Cheng, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Abstract

Abstract: In view of the current high incidence of human-to-human infectious viruses, a multi-agent simulation and deduction model was proposed and designed based on the random characteristics of virus transmission variation and the influence of population crossover activity. The external pathogenicity and infectious characteristics of the virus and the external activities and immune characteristics of the human were quantified, and the interdependence and confrontation process between the virus and the human were modeled. The development trends and statistical characteristics of a large number of viruses and humans were deduced through the model. The experimental analysis reveals that the randomness of the variation direction of a single virus does not affect the certainty of the development direction of the virus population variation. In other words, the pathogenicity intensity of the virus population continues to decrease until it stabilizes in the low-value range, and the infectious intensity of the virus population continues to increase until it stabilizes in the high-value range. The key external parameters that affect the virus transmission variation process are given, which can provide policy recommendations for the early prevention and control of highly pathogenic viruses.

Recommended Citation

Yu, Lei; Zhu, Xichou; Liao, Huaming; Guo, Jiafeng; and Cheng, Xueqi (2024) "Interaction Between Virus Transmission Variation and Population Crossover Activity and Diffusion Model," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 36: Iss. 7, Article 17.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.23-0478
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol36/iss7/17

First Page

1713

Last Page

1728

CLC

TP391.9

Recommended Citation

Yu Lei, Zhu Xichou, Liao Huaming, et al. Interaction Between Virus Transmission Variation and Population Crossover Activity and Diffusion Model[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(7): 1713-1728.

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.23-0478