Microsimulation of Infectious Disease Transmission Considering Virus Release, Transmission, and Action

Authors

Zhiming Fang, Business School, University of Shanghai for Science & Technology, Shanghai 200093, China; School of Intelligent Emergency Management, University of Shanghai for Science & Technology, Shanghai 200093, China
Shengdong Yuan, Business School, University of Shanghai for Science & Technology, Shanghai 200093, China; School of Intelligent Emergency Management, University of Shanghai for Science & Technology, Shanghai 200093, China
Ge Huang, China Merchants Industry Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd, Shanghai 200093, China
Jingqian Yang, Business School, University of Shanghai for Science & Technology, Shanghai 200093, China; School of Intelligent Emergency Management, University of Shanghai for Science & Technology, Shanghai 200093, China
Zhongyi Huang, Business School, University of Shanghai for Science & Technology, Shanghai 200093, China; School of Intelligent Emergency Management, University of Shanghai for Science & Technology, Shanghai 200093, China

Abstract

Abstract: Existing infection risk assessment methods mostly evaluate infection probability through mathematical models or simulation, but they lack analysis of the relationship between air circulation and individual infection probability. This study proposed a risk prediction model for infectious disease transmission based on indoor air circulation. At the microscopic scale, the space was discretized into grid points. By integrating CFD numerical simulation, the entire process of virus droplet release, transmission, and action was fully simulated. The simulation results show that in an obstacle-free room, the error between the total indoor viral load predicted by the model under windless and low wind speed conditions and the CFD simulation values remains within 10%. In the presence of obstacles and under different ventilation conditions, the error of the maximum total viral load between the model simulation and CFD simulation remains around 15%. The results of the model in predicting infection risks are basically consistent with the actual condition and can provide a reference for epidemic prevention and control work to a certain extent.

Recommended Citation

Fang, Zhiming; Yuan, Shengdong; Huang, Ge; Yang, Jingqian; and Huang, Zhongyi (2025) "Microsimulation of Infectious Disease Transmission Considering Virus Release, Transmission, and Action," Journal of System Simulation: Vol. 37: Iss. 10, Article 8.
DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.24-0485
Available at: https://dc-china-simulation.researchcommons.org/journal/vol37/iss10/8

First Page

2533

Last Page

2544

CLC

TP391.9

Recommended Citation

Fang Zhiming, Yuan Shengdong, Huang Ge, et al. Microsimulation of Infectious Disease Transmission Considering Virus Release, Transmission, and Action[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2025, 37(10): 2533-2544.

Corresponding Author

Huang Zhongyi

DOI

10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.24-0485